西北地区东部气温持续性研究及其应用  

Research on the continuity of temperature and its application in the east of Northwest China

作　　者：雷向杰[1] 程肖侠[1] 毛明策[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期1086-1092,共7页Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：陕西省科学技术研究发展计划基金资助项目(2011K17-02-03);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点基金资助项目(2006BAD04B01);陕西省气象局科技创新基金资助项目(2010M-19)

摘　　要：目的分析西北地区东部气温持续性时空分布特点,为月气温预测寻找理论根据和有用信息。方法应用相关系数、相关概率统计和显著性检验等方法,对研究区域内93个气象站1961—2009年月平均气温的持续性进行统计和检验。结果整个研究区域1～2月、5～6月关中、陕南6～7月、陕北7～8月气温持续性好,部分气象站相关系数超过0.001的显著性水平,距平符号一致率达到80%。结论西北地区东部气温持续性有明显的季节和地域差异,月平均气温持续性好的地区和月份,气温偏高或偏低对其下一个月的气温预测有较强指示意义。Aim In order to supply theory base and useful information to analyze the continuity of temperature in the east of Northwest China. Methods Using the correlation coefficient, the correlation probability and the significance test to analyze or test the continuity of temperature from 1961 to 2009 from 93 meteorological stations over Shaanxi province in the east of Northwest China. Results In terms of monthly average temperature, the continuityof temperature is better between January and February over the whole Shaanxi Province, and between May and June in Guanzhong（the middle area）, and between June and July in Shannan, July and August in Shanbei. Meanwhile,the concordance rate of anomaly of temperature reached 80 percent. Conclusion The temperature continuity in the east of Northwest China has significant seasonal and regional features, the high （low） temperature anomalies insome months or regions with well temperature continuity serve an important instruction to the forecast of the temperature in next month.

关 键 词：气温持续性 异常级预测 西北地区东部 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]