中国短时洪涝灾害危险性评估与验证  

Assessment and validation of short-term flood hazards in China

作　　者：马国斌[1,2] 蒋卫国[2,3] 李京[2,3] 张静[4] 马兰艳[4] 李加林[5] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院,杭州310018 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [5]宁波大学海岸带资源与环境研究中心,宁波315211

出　　处：《地理研究》2012年第1期34-44,共11页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171318;41001160);国家863计划(2009AA12Z124);国家科技支撑计划(2008BAC44B03);国家973计划(2008CB418006);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;浙江省科技厅公益项目(2010C33155)

摘　　要：基于自然灾害风险理论、借助GIS空间分析功能、采用归一化和层次分析法,对中国全国范围尺度进行短时洪涝灾害危险性评估。通过对洪涝灾害危险性因子分析,分别提取当天降雨量、前三天降雨量、地形高程、地形标准差、河湖网络等因素作为评估因子,提出了各因子危险性指数计算方法,以及全国洪涝灾害危险性指数计算模型公式,根据统计分析危险指数的最小值、最大值,结合历史灾情,利用阈值分割法确定危险等级分割值为0.3、0.45及0.6,将洪涝灾害危险等级划分为高危险、中危险、低危险与无危险四个等级,从而建立类似于天气预报模式的全国洪涝灾害危险性评估模型,并以2009年9月14日为例进行了洪涝灾害危险等级评估的实际应用。最后,本文提出了基于昨日灾情的危险性评估结果验证方法,通过整理同期昨日灾情资料构建灾情数据库,对2009年汛期的洪涝灾害危险性评估结果分别从数量和面积两个角度,基于县和地市两级行政区划作为验证单元进行验证。验证结果表明,洪涝灾害危险性评估结果无论是从数量上还是从面积上看均具有较高的正确率,与实际灾情基本吻合。This paper has conducted a short-term national-scale assessment of flood hazards in China based on the theory of natural disaster risks and by means of the powerful spatial analytic tool of GIS, as well as the normalization and analytic hierarchy process. The pre- cipitation of the current day and last three days, topographic elevation, topographic stand- ard deviation, network of rivers and lakes respectively were extracted as assessment factors, the methods of flood hazard factors computation and the models of flood hazard inde xes were advanced, as well as hazard assessment model was built for the national-scale flood hazard. Combined with disasters records, analysis of the minimum and maximum of hazard indexes by statistical method, the flood hazards are divided into four levels： high, medium, low and zero by dividing points of 0.3, 0.45 and 0.6, respectively. Then the model of short-term flood hazard assessment was built and used for a flood hazard assessment on September 14, 2009. It was applied for real-time flood events from June 18 to September 16, 2009 on daily basis. Finally, this paper puts forward the result validation method of flood hazard assessment based on the official report of disaster data. It collects the data from official report of disasters to build the disaster spatial database for the same period of the flood season in 2009, and validates the flood hazard assessment results in the point of view of quantity and area from both county-based and district-based validation u- nit. And the result shows that the rate of correct assessment （i. e. both the hazards and disasters occurrence） is above 65% for counties as the assessment unit and above 84% for districts as the assessment unit in the point of view of quantity. The validation result reveals that short-term national flood hazard assessment conforms basically to the actual disaster data. This model has been successfully applied to the forecast of flood hazards by the Disaster Alleviation Center under the Ministry of Civil Affairs si

关 键 词：危险性评估 评估模型 洪涝灾害 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]