研究员收益预测差异与公司债券信用利差  

Dispersion of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and Credit Spreads of Company Bonds

作　　者：郭牧炫[1] 魏诗博[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《经济问题》2012年第1期105-109,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"深化财税;金融;外贸和投资体制综合改革"(06&ZD030)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：机构研究员对上市公司的未来收益进行预测,预测差异常常造成债券价格出现偏差。以国内上市公司发行的债券为例,以研究员对收益预测的差异和债券信用利差进行了检验。结果发现,在卖空限制下,预测差异越大,债券信用利差越低。这种差异更多地代表了投资者的意见分歧,而非未来的风险水平。并且公司债券比企业债券的信用利差对投资者意见分歧更敏感。此外,还证实了银行间债券市场的流动性确实优于交易所债券市场;平均而言,公司债券的信用利差较企业债券的信用利差更低。The analysts of institutions forecast future returns of listed companies, the differences between their forecasting results that often cause bond prices deviating from their real values. Based on the bonds issued by domestic listed companies, we examine the relationship between dispersion of analysts＇ earnings forecasts and credit spreads. We find evidence that, under the short - sale constrains, higher forecast dispersion leads to lower credit spreads, and dispersion of analysts＇ earnings forecasts proxy largely for divergence of investors＇ opinions, not for future risk levels. Compared with corporate bonds, credit spreads of company bonds are more sensitive to divergence of investors＇ opinions. Besides, we also confirm that Inter - bank bond market liquidity does better than bourse bond market. On average, credit spreads of company bonds are lower than corporate bonds.

关 键 词：公司债券 企业债券 预测差异 信用利差 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]