无锡市生态足迹的系统动力学仿真研究  

Simulation Research of Ecological Footprint in Wuxi City Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：李磊 刘洁 刘学 

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]江苏环境与发展研究中心,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2012年第1期21-24,40,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:08BJY060);江苏省教育厅重点基地重大项目(编号:10JSJD25)

摘　　要：以生态足迹衡量居民对生态资源的需求,构建了包含社会经济、环境、人口、资源子系统的无锡市生态足迹系统动力学模型,分析了各因素对生态足迹系统的驱动作用和相互关系。基于模型预测了无锡市"十二五"期间的生态足迹数值,显示未来5年无锡市的生态足迹将继续呈现递增趋势,反映出居民对生态资源需求和对环境潜在压力不断增大。因此,市政府需重视居民的生态需要,不断改善生态环境,持续推进生态城市建设工作。This paper assesed the need of inhabitants for the ecological resource using the ecological footprint. System dynamics model of Wuxi containing social economy,environment, population, resource subsystem was constructed. Promotion of the ecological footprint by various aspects and the relationship between them were analyzed. On the fundament of model,ecological footprint figure during the ＂12th five- year- plan scheme＂ was foreastod. It zhowed flint tile ecological footprint would continue to increase in the coming five years. This implied that the need of residents for ecological rcsource and the impressure on environment was continuously increasing. The municipal govemmem should attach much importance to the need of residents for ecology, improve the ecological environment continuously, and propel the construction of ecological city in a sustained way.

关 键 词：生态足迹 系统动力学 生态需要 无锡市 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]