2010年西南旱灾对贵州旅游业的影响评价研究  

Assessment on Influence of 2010 Drought in Southwest China on Tourism in Guizhou Province

作　　者：罗厚成[1] 袁晓征[1] 杜宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]黔西南民族职业技术学院 [2]兴义民族师范学院,贵州兴义562400

出　　处：《商业经济》2012年第2期37-40,共4页Business & Economy

基　　金：贵州省教育厅人文社科青年项目:2010年西南旱灾对贵州旅游业的影响评价研究最终成果(No.10QN48)

摘　　要：通过分层聚类方法,得出吉林、黑龙江等地区和贵州的旅游业受上海世博会的影响为同一类别,把世博会对吉林和黑龙江旅游业拉动率的平均值作为对贵州旅游业的拉动率,剔除了世博会对贵州旅游业的影响;然后应用本底趋势线模型计算出贵州旅游业因旱灾导致的损失值和损失率;最后,运用近年来贵州旅游业的半年度数据证实了旱灾确实对旅游业产生的影响。By means of hierarchical clustering, this paper concludes that the tourism of Jilin and Heilongjiang as well as Guizhou Province belongs to the same category affected by Expo 2010 Shanghai China. Taking the average value of pulling rate from Expo 2010 for Jilin and Heilougjiaug tourism as that for Guizhou tourism and deleting the influence of Expe 2010 on Guizhou, we calculate the loss value and loss rate from its drought through the model of background trend line, and confirm the influence of drought on its tourism aecerding to its half-year data in recent years.

关 键 词：西南旱灾 上海世博会 贵州旅游 影响评价 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]