2012年台湾选举对政党体系的影响  

Inpact of 2012 Taiwan Residents Elections on the Island's Party System

作　　者：林冈[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第6期13-22,共10页Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"台湾政党政治的发展趋势及应对研究"(10BZZ040)

摘　　要：台湾立法机构选举所采取的以单名选区为主、政党比例代表为辅的并立式两票制和各级行政首长选举所实行的相对多数当选制,有利于强化既有两党体系,使其朝均等制衡的方向发展。基于国、民两党目前在"立法院"的席次分布和22个县市长选举的得票近况,民进党恐难赢得2012年台湾地区最高领导人选举,在立法机构也仍将处于少数地位,但两党在这次"二合一"选举中的得票数和得票率将趋于接近。Taiwan＇s legislators＇ elections with parallel plurality-propotioanl representation ballots and various executive head elections with plurality formula tend to enhance its current two-party system, moving it to the direction of inter-party symmetric checks and balances. Given the advantage the Nationalist Party enjoys in the seats of Taiwan＇s legislative organ and the majority votes it has gained during the country magistrator and city mayor elections in the past, it can safely be predicted that the Democratic Progressive Party may not win the Junuary 2012 elections for Taiwan＇s supreme leader and legislative organization. However, it is also safe to expect that the gap in ballots between the two parties will be further narrowed down in the forthcoming ＂two-in-one＂ elections on the island.

关 键 词：选举制度 政党体系 国民党 民进党 “泛蓝” “泛绿” 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]