大气环流模式(GCMs)在东南诸河流域的适用性评价  

Performance of Different General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Basins of Southeastern China

作　　者：刘文丰[1,2] 徐宗学[1,2] 李发鹏[1,2] 刘星才[1,2] 李秀萍[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2011年第4期13-23,共11页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)(项目编号:2010CB428400)

摘　　要：采用秩评分方法,选取NCEP再分析资料作为"实测"依据,以10个统计特征值为基础,评估了21个GCMs对东南诸河流域17个气候要素的模拟效果.结果显示:气候变量表现出不同的统计特征,GCMs对不同气候变量的模拟效果并不一致.与地面气象站点实测值对比,CSIRO∶MK30、GFDL∶CM21、GFDL∶CM20、INM∶CM30对降水和地面气温的模拟效果相对较好;流域高空气候要素的模拟效果更佳的模式有CGCM2.3.2、GISS∶EH、BCCR∶BCM20、GFDL∶CM20对;综合所有气候变量,BCCR∶BCM20、GFDL∶CM20、CGCM2.3.2、GISS∶EH的表现更优.优选出的GCMs可以为东南诸河流域气候变化的进一步研究提供科学依据.Based on ten statistical characteristics and compared with NCEP Re-analysis Data, a score- based multi-criteria method is employed to evaluate the performance of 21 GCMs in simulating 17 cli- matic elements in the basins distributed in southeastern China. Results show that different climate var- iables represent a variety of statistical characteristics. The simulation abilities of 21 GCMs are not con- sistent with climate elements. For the ground variables, CSIRO ： MK30, GFDL ： CM2I, GFDL ： CM20 and INM ： CM30 show a better performance in simulating precipitation and ground temperature. While the better models in generating high-altitude variables are CGCM2.3.2, GISS ： EH, BCCR ： BCM20 and GFDL. Considering all climate elements, BCCR ： BCM20, GFDL ： CM20, CGCM2. 3.2 and GISS ： EH perform better, comprehensively. The optimization of GCMs could pro- vide a scientific basis for further study of climate change in study area.

关 键 词：GCMS ERA-40 NCEP 评价 东南诸河 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]