多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF FUZZY MULTISTEP DECISIONMAKING TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：冯德益[1] 林命周[2] 蒋淳[1] 朱凤桐[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局 [2]上海市地震局

出　　处：《灾害学》1990年第4期1-7,19,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：地震科学联合基金

摘　　要：本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。In this paper, the method of fuzzy multistep decision-making has been applied to earthquake prediction countermeasures.The mathematical model of the fuzzy multistep decision-making applied to earthquake prediction was presented first.Since there is a long way, to go from earthquake prediction to its practical use, we have to take decisions and countermeasures at every moment from discovering any anomaly of precursors up to their peak. Fuzzy multistep decision-making may take an important part in the process of decision-making.It can help the decision-making department make a reasonable response based on the variations of input precursors and go forward to obtain the optimum social benefit. Secondly, two practical examples of fuzzy multistep decision-making in earthquake prediction were given. One is an numerical example.Another is a discussion on the fuzzy decision-making in the prediction of 1976 M=7.2 Songpan earthquake.

关 键 词：地震预报 模糊决策 地震对策 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]