利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电功率预报  

Wind Power Forecast Based on the Mesoscale Model and Diagnosis Wind Field Model

作　　者：张铁军[1] 朱蓉[2] 李照荣[1] 李晓霞[3] 伏晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]西北区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2011年第4期500-503,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省科技厅支撑计划"甘肃省风电功率预报技术研究与开发"(1011GKCA028);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目"北京快速循环更新数值预报系统改进与推广"(CMAGJ2011Z04)项目共同资助

摘　　要：风电往往与常规电源不同,具有很大的间歇性、随机性和不可控性,大容量的风电接入电网将会对电力系统安全、稳定运行带来严峻挑战。对风电场的风力进行短期预报,是解决这一问题的有效途径。本文利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电场输出功率预报。通过模拟发现,逐时风速预报效果较好,可以反应出风速的变化、大小及趋势。模拟与实况一致性和相关性较好,可以满足风电场风电功率预报的服务要求。Wind power is intermittent,randomness and non-controllable which is different from conventional power,the large capacity of wind power connecting to power grid has brought serious challenges to security and stable operation of power system.Short-term forecast of the power of wind field is an effective way to solve this problem.Based on the mesoscale model and diagnosis wind field model,the output power forecast of wind farm is carried on in this paper.Through the simulation result,we found that the hourly wind speed prediction can reflect the change of wind speed and it＇s trend.Consistency and correlation of the simulated and observed result are well,which can satisfy wind power forecast service requirement.

关 键 词：风电输出功率 预报 中尺度模式 诊断风场模型 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]