面雨量在城市内涝预报中的应用试验  

Application Test of Areal Precipitation on Urban Waterlogging Forecast

作　　者：李苗 逯张禹[2] 胡志新[3] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气象服务中心,太原030002 [2]山西省农业科学院农业科技信息中心,太原030006 [3]山西省气象信息中心,太原030006

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2011年第4期19-25,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：山西省科技攻关项目"基于GIS的极端气象灾害预警与评估集成系统"(20090311083);中国气象局行业公益项目"华北东北暴雨的发生发展特点及预报技术研究"(GYHY200906011);中国气象局关键技术集成项目"山西省气象灾害预报与对策研究"(CMAGJ2011M11)资助

摘　　要：以太原市历史上10次城市积水过程资料和2005年8月16日典型暴雨沥涝个例为基本试验数据,在37°47'—38°00'N、112°28'—112°36'E试验区域内,剖分为1×1 km2的规则网格,中心城区再一分为四,网格面积为0.25km2,共计477个规则网格。分别把细网格雨量法、二次曲面法、泰森多边形法计算的面雨量作为初值,代入太原市城市沥涝数学模型进行模拟试验,结果发现:采用泰森多边形法时,在59个积水区中,97%分布在3级以上易积水区域;80%的积水误差≤0.10 m;有12个积水区误差在0.10～0.20 m之间,占20%,无超过0.20 m的计算误差。采用细网格雨量法时,98.5%分布在3级以上易积水区域;83.1%的积水误差≤0.10 m;有10个积水区误差在0.10～0.20 m之间,占16.9%,无超过0.20 m的计算误差。二次曲面法和细网格雨量法模拟效果差别不大,且在0.15～0.20 m绝对误差级别中,细网格雨量法绝对误差更小一些。模拟结果表明,细网格雨量法应用在太原市城市沥涝模型中更有利于提高系统的预测精度。2008年汛期,以细网格雨量法输出的面雨量数据作为太原市城市沥涝模型的初值,较为准确地预报了2008年6月28日发生在太原城区的短时暴雨积水。Using the historical 10 urban waterlogging process data, as well as the typical rainstorm waterlogging sample on August 16th, 2005 in Taiyuan city as basic testing data, in the testing area of 37° 47＇-38 °00＇N, 112°28 ＇-112°36＇E, dissected the area into regular grids of 1 × 1 km2 , dissected the center city area into four parts any longer, the area of those grids was 0.25 km2 , totaling 477 regular grids. The author differently carried the initial value, which calculated by fine-mesh precipitation method, quadric surface method, Tessellation polygon method, into the mathematic model of Taiyuan city urban waterlogging to process the simulating test, and discovered： when by Tessellation polygon method, among the 59 water-logged regions, 97% of them were distributed at easy to be water-logged region of level 3 upwards; 80% of waterlogging error≤0.10 m; there were 12 water-logged regions whose error were between 0.10-0.20 m, which occupied 20% , there are no calculating error of over 0.20 m. When by fine-mesh precipitation method, 98.5% of them were distributed at easy to be water-logged region of lev- el 3 upwards; 83. 1% of waterlogging error ≤ 0.10 m; there were 10 water-logged regions whose error were between 0.10-0.20 m, which occupied 16.9% , there were no calculating error of over 0.20 m. The simulating effect of quadric surface method were almost the same as that of fine-mesh precipitation method, what＇s more, at the absolute error level of 0.15--0.20 m, the absolute error of fine-mesh pre- cipitation method were smaller. The simulating result indicates, applies fine-mesh precipitation method to Taiyuan city urban waterlogging model will be propitious to improve the forecast precision of system. At the flood season on 2008, took the areal precipitation data outputted by fine-mesh precipitation method as initial value of Taiyuan city urban waterlogging model, quite exactly forecasted the short-time rainstorm waterlogging occurred in Taiyuan urban area on June 28th, 2008.

关 键 词：面雨量 城市内涝 预报试验 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]