海上交通系统风险蒙特卡洛仿真  

Simulation on risk of marine traffic system by Monte Carlo algorithm

作　　者：胡甚平[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2011年第4期7-11,16,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：上海市重点学科建设项目(S30602);上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(09YZ252)

摘　　要：为准确掌握和分析特定状态或条件下的海上交通系统风险分布,有效进行船舶安全管理,对海上交通系统风险进行宏观分析.在海上交通事故频率与后果评估的基础上,采用蒙特卡洛方法建立海上交通系统风险仿真模型.运用该模型对指定条件下的海上交通系统风险进行仿真,得出风险度分布曲线.实例表明,该模型能够较好地反映海上交通系统风险的趋势,为海事安全管理决策提供支持.To know the risk distribution of marine traffic system in specified states or conditions, and carry out safety management on vessels effectively, risks of marine traffic system are analyzed from macroscopic aspects. Based on the evaluation of the frequency and consequence of the marine traffic accidents, a risk simulation model for the marine traffic system is established by Monte Carlo algorithm. The model is used to simulate the risks of marine traffic system in specified condition, and the risk distribution curve is obtained. Case study shows that the simulation can reflect the tendency of risks of marine traffic system, and provide support for the decision-making of maritime safety management.

关 键 词：概率分布 风险 海上交通 蒙特卡洛仿真 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] O242.2[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]