我国海外油气利用的战略选择研究  

Study on Strategic Alternatives for Oversea Oil and Gas Utilization in China

作　　者：孙晓蕾[1] 何琬[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《中国能源》2011年第12期14-18,42,共6页Energy of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71003091)

摘　　要：海外油气利用不仅是一种商业行为,更是国际能源投资贸易合作机制下不同国际集团利益分配博弈。海外油气利用区位选择的战略决策,既要考虑规避东道国的国家风险,又要考虑油气资源政治属性所蕴含的战略利益。因此,本文从油气资源国国家风险和地缘政治吸引力两个维度出发,构建海外油气利用区位选择的战略决策矩阵,并对33个油气资源国进行实证分析。研究结果表明利用所构建的战略决策矩阵能够清晰地实现海外油气投资区位划分以及优化路径识别;中国目前主要的油气贸易伙伴多集中在高风险低吸引力区位上,出于维护长期能源安全的战略需要,有必要逐步扩大与高吸引力区位国家的油气合作力度。The oversea oil and gas usage is not only one commercial activity, but also a game between different powers under the cooperation mechanism of international energy trade and investment. Thus, it is necessary to consider mitigating country risk of the host country and pursuing the potential strategic return implied by oil and gas＇ political attribute when selecting the location of oversea oil and gas usage. This paper adopts country risk of oil and gas resource-rich countries and energy geopolitical attraction as two dimensions, and constructs strategic matrix of location selection of oversea oil and gas usage. With an application to 33 oil and gas resource-rich countries, location selection of China＇s oversea oil and gas usage is examined. The results show that using the strategic matrix is useful for location selection of oversea oil and gas usage and identification of the improvement. It is concluded that China＇s oil trade partners mostly are in the region of high risk and low attraction, and it is necessary to enlarge the cooperation with the countries in the region of high attraction in order to satisfy the energy security strategy in the long term.

关 键 词：油气利用 区位选择 国家风险 地缘政治吸引力 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]