西北地区可利用年降水量趋势分析及预测  

Trend Analysis and Prediction of Utilizable Annual Precipitation in Northwest China

作　　者：吴立君[1,2] 葛朝霞[1,2] 曹琨[1,2] 胡己坤[1,2] 苗甫生[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]江苏省气象局防雷中心,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第12期51-53,55,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY200706005)

摘　　要：利用1951—2009年逐月降水量和气温资料,分析了近60 a来西北地区的年降水量、气温、年蒸发量及可利用年降水量的变化特征,采用逐步回归周期分析法对各气候要素及可利用年降水量建立预报模型,并对未来5 a上述要素的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:西北地区的年降水量、气温、年蒸发量及可利用年降水量随时间的变化特征各不相同;未来5 a内,西北地区年降水量、年均气温、年蒸发量及可利用年降水量均有减少或降低趋势。Calculation of monthly average evaporation and utilizable precipitation in Northwest China was carried out based on monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1951 to 2009. After the detailed analysis of the past 60 years on annual precipitation, temperature, annual evaporation and utilizable annual precipitation in the five north western regions, the prediction models for each climate factor were established using stepwise re- gression analysis, and the trends of the elements mentioned above for the next five years were forecasted. Results show that changing characteristic over time of precipitation, temperature, evaporation and utilizable precipitation in the five north western regions are not identical because of the effects of many factors. In the next five yeats, the annual precipitation and the annual average temperature, annual evaporation and annual utilizable precipitation will reduce in different degrees.

关 键 词：气候要素 可利用降水量 逐步回归周期分析 西北地区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]