河南省粮食产量影响因素分析  

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Grain Output of Henan Province

作　　者：宰松梅 郭树龙 温季 郭冬冬 

机构地区：[1]水利部农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453002

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第12期94-96,128,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家"863"计划项目(2006AA100213);国家农业科技成果转化资金项目(2009GB23320465;2010GB23260584)

摘　　要：利用逐步回归分析的方法对影响河南省粮食产量的12个因素进行回归分析,确定引入回归方程的主要影响因素为化肥施用量、农药施用量、农业科技三项费用和播种面积,并用回归方程对河南省1990—2006年的粮食产量序列进行了拟合分析。结果表明:该逐步回归方程的最大相对误差为7.97%,平均相对误差仅为0.87%。The 12 factors affecting grain output of Henan Province were analyzed by using stepwise regression analysis method. It was determined that the main factors introduced to the regression equation were the quantity of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, throe types of expenditure in agricultural science and technology and planting area. The sequence of grain production from 1990 to 2006 in Henan Province was fitted by using regression equation. The results show that the maximum relative error of stepwise regression analysis is 7.97%, and the average relative error is only 0. 87%.

关 键 词：粮食产量 逐步回归分析 影响因素 河南省 

分 类 号：S117[农业科学—农业基础科学]