欧洲七国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易的关系——1985-2009年的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验  

An Empirical Study on Tourism and Trade Interaction between Seven European Countries and China:Based on Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Analysis since 1985

作　　者：赵多平[1,2] 孙根年[2] 苏建军[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学资源环境学院,银川750021 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [3]运城学院经济管理系,山西运城044000

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2011年第4期121-133,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(03BJY0088);教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(11XJC630017)

摘　　要：选取1985～2009年欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易统计数据,运用协整分析和Granger因果检验方法,构建各国入境中国客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易的协整方程和修正模型,分别对欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易额之间的关系进行分析和研究。结果表明:欧洲七国入境中国客流量与其对中国进出口贸易额存在长期均衡关系,各国入境客流量对进口和出口贸易额的长期弹性远大于短期弹性;Granger因果关系检验显示,欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进口贸易额存在显著的单向因果关系,英国、德国和瑞典入境中国客流量与出口贸易额的单向因果关系显著,瑞士进口贸易额、意大利出口贸易额与其入境中国客流量的单向因果关系显著,其差异性与各国入境中国客流量的大小、贸易依存度、贸易顺逆差情况和双边关系的对称性差异密切相关。Based on the datas of inbound tourism,import and export trade between Seven European countries and China from 1985 to 2009, this paper applies the cointegration test and Granger causality test to establish equations and the modified models ,and analyzes the long-run equilibrium, short-term flexibility and causal relationship between inbound tourism and the import,export trade respectively, Results show that：there exists long-term equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism and two kinds of trade,and their long-term flexibility is much larger than the short term flexibility;The results of Granger causality tests indicates that there is a one-way causality between inbound tourism and imports in all case countries,except the case of Switzerland,a one-way causality between inbound tourism and exports in the case countries of UK,Germany and Switzerland,a onelay causality between imports and inbound tourism only in the case country of Switzerland,a one-way causality between exports and inbound tourism only in the case country of Italy;The difference may be caused by the country＇s size,trade dependence, trade deficit situation and bilateral relations along the symmetry differences in relationships.

关 键 词：入境旅游 进出口贸易 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 互动关系 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]