汶川地震对地震预报工作的一些启示  

The Revelation of Wenchuan Earthquake for Earthquake Forecast

作　　者：张晓东[1] 蒋海昆[1] 李正媛[1] 卢显[1] 安艳茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《工程研究（跨学科视野中的工程）》2011年第4期309-320,共12页JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING STUDIES

基　　金：地震行业科研专项(项目编号200808036)

摘　　要：2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,认真研究和反思这次地震中所反映的地震预报方面的科学问题,对地震预报科学的发展是十分重要的。本文简要叙述了1966年以来地震预报工作和地震预报研究的进展情况,通过分析汶川8.0级地震的形成机理,对如何认识大型断层长期缓慢积累能量的特征,如何认识这种积累能量的方式在发震前出现的异常现象等进行了探讨。同时认为要清醒地认识到,类似的大型断层长期缓慢积累能量的方式不仅仅发生在汶川地震所处的龙门山断裂带,中国还有许多类似的断裂和构造环境。The 5.12 Wenchuan, Sichuan, M8.0 earthquake resulted in enormous casualty and property loss. Studying and rethinking the scientific problems reflected by this earthquake is essential to earthquake forecast. This paper briefly introduces the earthquake forecast work and research process since 1966, and discusses how to understand the characteristics of energy accumulation of large active fault during a long term and the abnormality that would appear before the quake. Meanwhile, we should clearly realize that such energy accumulation pattern of large active fault during long term is not only occurred along the Longmenshan fault zone where Wenchuan earthquake happened, but also along many other similar faults and tectonic environment in China mainland.

关 键 词：汶川 地震预报 启示 断层 断裂带 能量积累 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]