基于Fisher判别分析法的泥石流预报模型研究  

Forecasting Model of Debris Flow Based on Fisher Discrimination Analysis Method

作　　者：王文川[1] 吴海波[1] 赵晓慎[1] 邱林[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院水利学院,河南郑州450011 [2]华北水利水电学院环境与市政工程学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2011年第6期104-107,共4页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目"基于新兴理论的水资源系统建模方法研究"(2010B570002)

摘　　要：针对泥石流形成原因复杂,形成机理认识不足,预测预报困难等特点。根据泥石流形成的直接成因降雨因素,运用判别分析理论,提出了泥石流预报的Fisher判别分析模型。该模型基本思想是将一系列与泥石流发生相关的因子数据投影到某一个方向,使得投影后数据尽可能地分组,借助组内方差尽量小,组间方差尽量大的一元方差分析思想确定判别函数,依据判别准则,判定新样本的归属类别。该方法具有操作简单易懂及计算速度快的特点,可及时对泥石流状况进行判别。实例研究结果表明,提出的Fisher判别分析泥石流预报模型能够有效提高预报精度。Due to the complicated causes,the poor understanding to debris flow and difficulties in prediction,a Fisher discrimination analysis model for forecasting the debris flow was developed according to the theory of discrimination analysis.Its basic idea is that a series of factor data related to the debris flow occurrence was projected to some direction and the data projected can be grouped as far as possible.The discriminant function was determined according to the univariate variance analysis,which requires smaller intraclass variance and larger interclass variance.And then new samples were sorted into some class according to this criterion.The proposed model is simple and run fast,and can predict the condition of debris flow in time.The case study showed that Fisher discrimination analysis model can improve the prediction accuracy of debris flow.

关 键 词：Fisher判别分析法 判别函数 判别准则 泥石流 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]