中美利率调控政策与房地产价格走势的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Interest Rate Policy and the Tendency of Real Estate Prices in the United States and China

作　　者：张晶[1] 杨萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财政学院学报》2012年第1期108-115,共8页Journal of Shandong Finance Institute

基　　金：教育部社科青年项目"金融危机冲击下的我国货币政策的区域结构效应研究"(10YJC790379)

摘　　要：利率变动与房地产价格间的关系一直是人们关注的重要问题之一。美国这场由次贷危机引发的金融风暴,再次证实了市场利率会引起房地产价格反向变化:美联储在2001-2007年间推行的存有明显偏差的先扬后抑的利率调控政策,直接推动了美国房地产市场价格的过度波动,进而导致了金融危机的产生。当前,在我国不断推进利率市场化进程的背景下,利率与房地产价格之间的关系自2005年起也开始呈现出了长期的反向相关关系,而近期的房价调控政策可以对现阶段过高的房价起到下调作用,但具有一定的滞后期。The relationship between interest rate change and real estate prices has been one of the important issues of concern. The financial turmoil caused by sub - prime mortgage crisis in the United States reconfirmed that market interest rates will cause the reverse change of real estate prices. The interest rate control policy implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2001 -2007 with significant deviations directly caused the U.S. real estate market price volatility and then led to the emergence of the financial crisis. Currently, under the background of constant promotion of the interest rate market oriented in China, the relationship between the interest rates and real estate price has begun to show a long - term reverse correlation since 2005. And the price control policy of the real estate will play a certain down - regulation role for the too high housing price, but with some kind of lag phase.

关 键 词：利率调控 房地产价格 次贷危机 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]