大区域尺度下地理系统的空间直观模拟与景观演变  

Spatially-explicit Modelling and Landscape Evolution of Geographical System in a Large Scale Area

作　　者：冯永玖[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第5期48-51,58,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(11YZ154);上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金(SSC09018);上海海洋大学校博士启动基金及环境工程重点学科基金(A-2400-10-0134)

摘　　要：元胞自动机(CA)支持下的地理系统空间直观模拟(SEM),能够以空间可视化方式显示模拟结果,不仅能够弥补缺失的资料,更能够推演土地利用的未来趋势和可能情景,从而揭示土地利用的时空过程与变化规律。基于Logistic回归的CA模型,模拟了大区域尺度下的上海市陆域土地利用变化,并利用景观指标对结果进行刻画和分析。研究表明:上海市城市建设用地面积持续增加,植被面积不断减少,而水域面积保持稳定;此外,景观指标揭示的土地利用空间形态变化过程及趋势,与所采用的元胞尺度有较大关系,即空间直观模拟结果与景观指标具有显著的尺度敏感性。Spatially-explicit modelling（SEM） of land use under the support of cellular automata（CA） is capable of displaying the results with spatial visualization,recovering the missing materials,and inferring the future tendency and feasible scenarios of geographical system,thus to reveal the spatiotemporal process and change rules of land use.With the Logistic regression based on CA model,followed by a landscape pattern analysis,the land use in main land of Shanghai Municipality was simulated.The results demonstrate that the area of building land use type in Shanghai is increasing,that of vegetation is decreasing,and that of water is almost maintaining its state since 1992.Moreover,landscape metrics revealing land use change process and tendency are observed relating with the cell size used,that is,spatially-explicit modelling and landscape metrics is remarkablely sensitive to the cell size.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 大区域尺度 空间直观模拟 土地利用 景观演变 

分 类 号：P901[天文地球—自然地理学]