基于马尔柯夫模型的漾濞江流域土地利用变化预测  

Prediction of Land Use Change in Yangbijiang River Basin Based on the Markov Model

作　　者：王剑[1] 徐美[1] 

机构地区：[1]沧州师范学院,河北沧州061001

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第5期91-95,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家"973项目"专题(2003CB415105-6)

摘　　要：为了掌握漾濞江流域土地利用的演变趋势,优化土地利用结构,实现土地的可持续利用,在遥感和地理信息系统技术的支持下,利用1990年和2001年的遥感影像作为信息源,获取漾濞江流域土地利用类型数据,结合马尔柯夫模型确定相应的转移概率矩阵,据此分析土地利用各类型间的相互转化情况,并应用马尔柯夫模型和单一土地利用动态度对土地利用的演变趋势进行分析。结果表明:土地利用类型之间的相互转化突出表现为耕地、林地、草地之间的相互转化以及耕地向城乡工矿居民用地的转化;林地面积将趋于稳定,仍为研究区的主要土地利用类型,耕地、草地面积继续减少,水域、城乡工矿居民用地面积稳步增加;必须采取有效措施,解决好耕地保护和城乡发展之间的矛盾,实现当地的可持续发展。In order to grasp the land use evolution tendency in Yangbijiang river basin,optimize the land use structure and realize sustainable land use,the remote sensing images in 1990 and 2001 were utilized and the data of land use change were acquired with the help of RS and GIS.By means of Markov model,the corresponding transition probability matrix was confirmed.Then,the mutual transformation and the evolution tendency of the land use were analyzed by the Markov model and the single land use dynamic index.The results showed that the conversion among farmland,woodland and grassland was the most crucial one in various land use form conversions,followed by the conversion of farmland to residential-industrial quarter;the general trend of land use change in Yangbijiang river basin was： the area of woodland would gradually became stable and was still the main land use type,the areas of farmland and grassland were reducing,the areas of water and residential-industrial quarter were increasing steadily;the contradiction between the farmland conservation and the development of city was becoming more and more serious and effective measures should be taken to protect the farmland and promote local sustainable development.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫模型 土地利用 漾濞江流域 遥感 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]