FDI影响贸易顺差:基于两缺口模型的理论分析和实证检验  

The Effects of FDI on Trade Surplus:The Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Verification on Two-Gap Model

作　　者：秦海林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学应用经济学博士后流动站 [2]天津工业大学经济学院金融系,副教授天津300387

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2012年第1期14-22,155,共9页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目(阶段)成果

摘　　要：基于钱纳里两缺口模型进行的理论分析显示,发展中国家劳动力的增长可以无条件地增加其贸易顺差,而FDI扩大贸易顺差则须满足一定的条件,即产出-资本(由FDI与国内资本组成的总资本)比必须大于临界值。对此,本文不仅从产业结构转移、技术外溢、两种体制的投资比赛和劳动力的资本配备等方面给予了理论阐释,而且还运用30个省份的数据作了面板协整经验,实证结果显示:FDI和固定资产投资对贸易顺差具有抑制效应,而城镇劳动力则向上拉动贸易顺差。The theoretical analysis on Chenery's two-gap model indicates that the growth of labor in developing countries can unconditionally increase the trade surplus,but FDI can not augment the surplus unless satisfies a certain condition,that is the ratio of product-capital should be more that of the critical value.This paper not only gave theoretical elucidation from industrial structure transformation,technical spillover,investment competition between two systems and capital equipment of labor,but also made panel cointegration experience with the data of 30 provinces.The results show that FDI and fixed asset investment will depress the trade surplus,but the urban labor will enhance it.

关 键 词：FDI 贸易顺差 两缺口模型 投资 面板数据 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6F752