我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标科学性分析  

Scientific Analysis on Development Goal of Population Participating in Regular Physical Exercise in China

作　　者：孙伏友[1] 侯洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]徐州师范大学,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《体育科学》2012年第1期34-39,共6页China Sport Science

基　　金：江苏省研究生培养创新工程资助项目(CX10S_022R)

摘　　要：我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展系统是一个复杂系统,科学的制定这一系统发展目标是我国大众体育各项工作开展的依据。以系统动力学理论与方法为工具,构建系统模型进行仿真模拟,对体育事业发展"十二五"规划中我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标进行定量分析,并与体育事业发展"十二五"规划所提出的目标进行定性的对比分析,探讨我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展系统各要素之间是如何协同作用于系统发展的,从而验证系统发展目标制定是否具有科学性。研究结果表明,体育事业发展"十二五"规划提出的经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标是切合实际的、可行的,而体育事业发展"十一五"规划提出的经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标是不切实际的。通过两次目标对比提示,在制定目标时,要以系统原理为依据,从定性与定量相结合,从系统发展的内在规律出发,充分考虑系统环境,防止所制定的目标带有盲目性,不切实际,造成实际操作中人力、财力、物力的损失。Development system of Chinese population regularly participating in exercise is a complex system,and each item of implement about massive physical exercise is based on proposing scientifically goal of this system.Development goal of population regularly participating in exercise prompted by ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ sports cause is qualitatively analyzed through building systems model and using system dynamics theory,and is compared with goal proposed by the ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂.This paper deeply studies the interaction of various factors among development system of population regularly participating in physical exercise and proves the scientific of goal.The results show that goal about population regularly participating in physical exercise proposed by ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂ sports cause is unrealistic and display a clear form of the Great Leap Forward.Goal proposed by ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ plan is realistic and feasible.With contrast in the two goals,formulation of objectives must obey the system principle,a combination of qualitative and quantitative,the internal principle of system development,and full consideration of the system environment.To prevent the target with blindness and impractical results in loss in man power,financial resource and material resources.

关 键 词：体育人口 发展目标 科学性 中国 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]