中国贸易顺差可持续性的经验分析——基于内生结构突变的单位根及协整检验  

An Empirical Analysis of the Sustainability of China's Trade Surplus:Based on Unit Root and Cointegration Verification of Endogenous Structural Mutation

作　　者：许统生[1] 殷功利[1] 朱永军[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经济研究所,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2012年第1期96-104,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究规划项目"中国贸易成本估计及其效应的经验分析"(09YJA790090);江西省社科规划项目"全球不平衡背景下中国外贸顺差的原因;经济与生态环境效应;措施"(08YJ23);江西省高校人文社科项目"江西服务贸易保护成本估计及其政策措施"(JJ0810);江西财经大学创新团队项目"贸易成本与环境友好型贸易发展研究"

摘　　要：在统计描述中国1990-2010年的月度进出口数据关系典型事实的基础上,利用内生结构突变的单位根和协整检验技术,对中国贸易顺差可持续性进行了经验分析,结果表明:中国进出口之间具有包含截距项和斜率项都发生了变化的长期均衡关系,贸易顺差具有弱可持续性,出口由于受到进出口间长期均衡关系的约束,其偏离均衡会在下一期得到修正。因此,旨在调节贸易收支(外部)基本平衡的政策应充分考虑这一特性。On the basis of statistical description of the typical facts of China＇s monthly import and export data relations during the period of 1990-2010, and making use of the unit root and coin- tegration verification techniques of endogenous structural break, this paper conducts an empirical anal- ysis of the sustainability of China＇s trade surplus. The results show that the between China＇s import and export there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship in which changes are found in the inter- cept items and the slope items. The trade surplus has weak sustainability; due to the restrain of the long-term balanced relationship between the import and export, the deviation from equilibrium of export will be corrected in the next term. Therefore, policies aiming at adjusting the trade balance （ex- ternal） should take full account of this feature.

关 键 词：贸易顺差 强可持续 弱可持续 内生突变 外生突变 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]