21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应  

Responses of Hydrological Processes to the Climate Change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st Century

作　　者：刘绿柳[1,2] 姜彤[1,2] 徐金阁[1] 翟建青[1,2] 罗勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2012年第1期28-34,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428400)

摘　　要：应用HBV-D水文模型和多个气候模式预估了不同温室气体排放情景下珠江主干流西江的径流过程,分析了21世纪水资源量和洪水频率的变化。结果表明:2050年后年降水量和年径流量较基准期(1961—1990年)明显增加;流域平均的月降水量和径流量在5—10月间均呈增加趋势,12月至次年2月呈减少趋势;年最大1 d和7 d洪量逐渐增加,重现期逐渐缩短。2030年前枯水期径流增加有望缓解枯水期用水压力,而2050年之后丰水期径流量以及洪水强度、发生频率的增加将给珠江流域防汛抗洪带来更大压力,在制订气候变化对流域水资源影响适应性对策时应考虑这两方面的影响。Discharge from 1961 to 2099 through the outlet of Xijiang River,the biggest sub-basin of Zhujiang River,was simulated by hydrological model HBV-D using the precipitation and temperature projected from three climate models（GCMs） under three greenhouse gas（GHG） emission scenarios.The following conclusions can be drawn through analyzing the changes of water resources and flood frequency relative to the reference period of 1961-1990.Annual precipitation and annual runoff will increase after 2050.In addition,Area average precipitation and runoff show increasing trends in each month from May to October,but decreasing trends from December to next February based on the results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis.More and larger floods will occur in future.Potential increased runoff during the low flow season before 2030 will ease the pressure of water demand,but the increased runoff in the high flow season,and more frequent and larger floods will bring more pressure on flood controlling after 2050.These impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Zhujiang River basin should be considered when planning adaptation and mitigation strategies.

关 键 词：珠江流域 HBV-D水文模型 洪水 枯水 预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]