基于改进灰色预测法的乌鲁木齐市道路交通事故预测  

Prediction of Road Traffic Accident in Urumqi Based on Improved Gray Prediction Method

作　　者：陈远旭[1] 胡新民 艾力.斯木吐拉[1] 张艳云[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学机械交通学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆交通科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《交通标准化》2012年第1期27-30,共4页Communications Standardization

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科学技术厅计划项目(H101326001)

摘　　要：交通事故预测是交通安全研究的重要内容,是提高道路交通安全水平的基础。为研究乌鲁木齐市道路交通事故发展趋势,在分析交通事故灰色特性的基础上,以乌鲁木齐市道路交通事故统计资料为基础,运用改进的灰色预测模型进行交通事故伤亡人数预测。结果表明,改进的灰色预测模型比传统灰色预测模型精度提高了74.98%。The traffic accident forecast is an important context of traffic safety research,and it is also the basis for improving the traffic safety.In order to study the trend of the road traffic accidents in Urumqi,based on the statistics of road traffic accidents in Urumqi and the gray characteristics of road traffic accidents,the imp-roved gray prediction method is used to forecast the casualties of road traffic accidents.As a result,compared with the traditional gray prediction model,the accuracy is promoted by 74.98% using the improved gray prediction method.

关 键 词：道路交通安全 改进灰色模型 伤亡人数 预测 

分 类 号：U491.131[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]