河南省粮田人口承载力影响因素的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors of Population Supporting Capacity of Grain Field in Henan Province

作　　者：陈恭军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《技术经济》2011年第12期86-89,115,共5页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国加入WTO对农业和农村发展影响的事后评估"(70973122)

摘　　要：对土地人口承载力理论的国内外研究现状进行了综述;结合前人的研究成果,选取相应指标,在协整分析的基础上,运用多元线性回归方法对河南省粮田人口承载力的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果显示:人口因素、农业劳动力生产技术水平因素和土地因素与粮田人口承载力正相关,其中人口因素的影响最大;粮食需求因素与粮田人口承载力负相关。最后提出提高河南省粮田人口承载力的政策建议。This paper firstly reviews the domestic and foreign research on the theory of land supporting capacity. Then combining the existing related research, it empirically analyzes the effect degree and direction of main influencing factors of population supporting capacity of grain field in Henan province by using the muhi-dimensional linear regression method on the basis of the cointegration analysis. The result shows as follows： the factors of population, production technical level of agricultural labor and land affect the population supporting capacity of grain field positively, and the influence of population factor is the biggest ; there is a negative correlation between the factor of grain demand and the population supporting capacity of grain field. Finally, it proposes some policy suggestions in order to enhance the population supporting capacity of grain field in Henan province.

关 键 词：土地人口承载力 粮田 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F224