基于随机故障序列的制造系统动态可靠性仿真  

Dynamic Reliability Simulation for Manufacturing System Based on Stochastic Failure Sequence Analysis

作　　者：苏春[1] 王胜友[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学机械工程学院,南京211189

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2011年第24期165-170,共6页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50405021)

摘　　要：采用随机故障序列、Petri网理论和蒙特卡洛仿真评估制造系统的动态可靠性。给出随机故障序列、序列重要度以及关键部件的定义,阐述随机故障序列的分析流程。基于随机Petri网理论建立系统可靠性分析模型,得到系统状态标识表;由状态标识表构建可达树,根据可达树求得系统的随机故障序列集。利用最小路集方法判定系统故障与否,分析仿真过程中避免部件过度故障问题及其解决方法;利用蒙特卡洛仿真计算随机故障序列的发生规律,评估系统的动态可靠性。通过计算每一个故障序列发生的次数、频率和持续时间等指标,确定影响系统可靠性的关键部件和瓶颈环节,为系统可靠性增长提供了理论依据。完成某供油系统动态可靠性案例分析,仿真结果验证所提出方法的正确性和有效性。System dynamic reliability for manufacturing system is investigated based on stochastic failure sequence（SFS） analysis,Petri nets theory and Monte Carlo simulation.The definitions of SFS,importance of sequence,and key components of system are given out.The analysis procedure for SFS is discussed.Analysis model for system reliability is established based on Petri nets theory,the state identification table of the system is built and the reachability tree is created,and all SFSs of the system can be obtained.System＇s failure states can be determined with the method of minimal path sets,and the method for avoiding components＇ excessive failure during simulation is also considered.Monte Carlo simulation is used to compute the occurrence of all the failure sequences and system dynamic reliability.By means of calculating the number of times,frequency,and time of duration of each failure sequence,we can get the key components and bottleneck parts which influence system reliability,it provides theoretical basis for system reliability growth.A case study for an oil supply system is presented,the simulation results demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：动态可靠性 故障序列 PETRI网 仿真 最小路集 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]