不成熟债权国、估值效应与中国的财富流失风险  

Immature Creditor,Valuation Effects and the Risk of Chinese Wealth Outflow

作　　者：廖泽芳[1,2] 詹新宇[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]广东海洋大学经管学院,广东湛江524088 [3]广西师范大学经济管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2012年第1期92-99,127,共8页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：中国从20世纪90年代初期开始转变为净国外资产持有者,目前是全球最大债权主体之一。但由于人民币尚未国际化,中国处于不成熟债权国地位;从债权结构看,由官方储备和债务性资产所构成的"风险资产"是中国净国外债权的主体部分;这一债权状况增加了中国的财富流失风险。基于向量误差修正模型和状态空间模型的实证检验结果表明,中国净国外债权变动中存在相当大的负估值效应,在国际金融危机期间尤为显著,人民币汇率变化是引起负估值效应的重要因素之一。因此,调整对外投资策略、稳定人民币汇率并积极推进人民币国际化是增强中国外部资产管理水平的关键。In the early 1990s,China had turned into the holder of Net Foreign Asset,and presently it is one of the biggest global creditor.However,China is still an immature creditor due to failure of RMB internationalization.The fact that he 'risk assets' consist of the main part of Chinese net foreign credit aggravates the risk of Chinese wealth outflow.The empirical results based on VECM and state-space model show that the change of Chinese net external credit has significant negative valuation effects,and the RMB exchange rate is one of the most important causes of negative valuation effects.Thus,to adjust external investment strategies,stabilize RMB exchange rate,and promote RMB internationalization are the keys to improve the management of Chinese external assets.

关 键 词：不成熟债权国 净国外资产 估值效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.6F224