基于灰色理论的电力变压器状态预测方法的研究  

Research on Prediction Method for Conditions of Power Transformer Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：陈亮[1] 曹珍崇[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力工业勘察设计研究院,广西南宁530023

出　　处：《红水河》2011年第6期68-71,83,共5页Hongshui River

摘　　要：电力变压器作为电力系统中一类重要的电气设备,运行状态的好坏直接关系到整个电力系统的运行状况。对电力变压器进行状态预测评估,给出电力变压器未来某时刻的总体运行状态和存在的风险尤为重要。电力变压器的状态预测是状态检修工作的重要组成部分。文中介绍了灰色模型和灰色模型的优化方法,并根据灰色预测算法建立的优化(综合)灰色模型实现了对电力变压器状态的预测。应用实例的分析结果表明,综合灰色预测算法精度高,更适合电力变压器状态量的预测。Power transformer is a type of important electrical equipment in electrical power system, whose operating status influences the operation of the entire electrical power system directly. Hence, it is very important to predict the condition of power transformer for obtaining the overall operating status of power transformer and pointing out the risk in future. The condition prediction of power transformer is an important part in the process of condition-based maintenance. In this paper, several grey models and method to optimize grey model are introduced, and an optimization grey model based on grey forecast algorithm is established, by which a prediction for power transformer condition is realized. Based on the analysis result of practical examples, it is revealed that the grey forecast algorithm iaas high precision, which is more suitable for prediction of power transformer conditions.

关 键 词：电力变压器 灰色理论 状态检修 状态预测 

分 类 号：TM411.1[电气工程—电器]