陕西省城乡关联发展与基础设施建设动态关系分析  

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBAN-RURAL INTEGRATION DEVELOPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

作　　者：吴涛[1] 李同昇[1] 芮旸[1] 李献波 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,中国陕西西安710127

出　　处：《经济地理》2011年第12期2021-2027,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(编号:08ZD027);陕西省科学技术研究发展计划项目(编号:2008K08-06);西北大学研究生创新基金项目(编号:10YZZ01)联合资助

摘　　要：以陕西省为例,在对近20年城乡关联度和基础设施建设水平测度的基础上,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型,对其城乡关联发展与基础设施建设的关系进行了计量分析。研究显示:①1990年以来,陕西省城乡关联度和基础设施建设水平经历了同步发展到拮抗的演变过程;②陕西省道路、邮电通信、环保和教育卫生设施建设水平变化与城乡关联度变化互为格兰杰因果关系,而城乡关联度变化仅是能源给水设施建设水平变化的单向格兰杰因果关系;③陕西省城乡关联度变化一直受到自身及道路、邮电通信、环保和教育卫生设施建设水平的影响,且后者的方差贡献逐渐增大,其中道路设施建设水平的方差贡献率在第5期(即1994年)超过了其自身的贡献率。Based on evaluation the comprehensive indexes of urban-rural correlation and infrastructure construction from 1990-2009 in Shaanxi province, this paper explores the dynamics relationship between urban-rural integration development and infrastructure construction using Granger Causality Test, Impulse-response Function and Variance Decomposition Model. The results showed that： （1）The level of infrastructure construction and urban-rural correlation experienced a way from synchronous to antagonistic development since 1990s;（2） There is a mutual causal relationship between the construction level of roads, post and telecommunication, environmental protection, education and health and urban-rural correlation in Shaanxi province, but urban-rural correlation is only the Granger Causality of the construction level of energy and water supply;（3） Urban- rural correlation results from not only itself, but also is affected by the construction levels of road, post and telecommunication, environmental protection, education and health, and their variance contribution are gradually increasing, and the variance contribution of the construction level of roads is more than its own contribution in 1994.

关 键 词：城乡关联发展 基础设施建设 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]