气候变化对中国种植制度影响的研究进展  

Research Progress of Impact of Climate Change on Crop System in China

作　　者：郑冰婵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学经济管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2012年第2期308-311,共4页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：太行山区农业可持续管理技术研究(KSCX2-YW-N-48-03)

摘　　要：为研究气候变化对中国农业种植制度的影响,综述了学者们在气候变化对中国种植制度和复种指数影响上的研究结果。结果显示:未来气候变化将会使中国的三熟区面积扩大,一熟区面积缩小,两熟区面积变化较小。农业复种指数在总体增加的情况下,在不同地区的增加幅度有所不同。但是,研究中还存在着气候模型自身的不足以及未考虑技术进步等因素对种植制度和复种指数的影响。因此,在今后的研究中,需要加强模型精确度及多因素综合对中国种植制度的影响研究,以提高预测结果的准确度。In order to study the impact of climate change on crop system in China, the research results of different researcher on the impact of climate change on crop system were reviewed. The results showed that, the area of three crops in one year increased, the area of one crops in one year declined greatly and the area of two crops in one year changed little with the climate change in the future. The results also showed that the multi-cropping index increased all over the country, but the increase degree was different in different region. There was also some imperfectness in the researches, because the accuracy of climate model wasn＇t enough and the impacts of other facts like technology development were not included in the research. In order to improve the precision of prediction, the accuracy of climate model should be improved and other factors which impacted the crop system also should be included in the study in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 种植制度 复种指数 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]