基于贝叶斯网络推理的项目群风险及其演化研究  

A Study of Project Group Risk Theory and Its Risk Evolvement Based-on Bayesian Nets Reasoning

作　　者：王勇胜[1,2] 冷亚军[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学建筑工程学院,吉林吉林132012 [2]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《东北电力大学学报》2011年第5期104-109,共6页Journal of Northeast Electric Power University

摘　　要：本文探讨了集群环境下的群风险问题,从复杂系统理论出发,遵从认识发展的辩证规律,提出了基于"群"视角的风险管理理论框架,并应用贝叶斯网络推理进行了群风险演化分析。同时,结合项目群给出了应用实例,对项目群环境下实现高效的风险管理进行了有益的探索。This thesis research the group risk problem within broad sense group condition. Deriving from com- plex system theory and following dialectic disciplinarian about cognition progress, we present the theory frame of risk management based upon group perspectives, and analyse the evolvement of group risk through Bayesian nets reasoning. At last, a project group example was offered to illuminate the research. In conclusion, this paper make the beneficial work in exploring effective risk management under project group condition.

关 键 词：项目群风险 风险演化 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]