三步实现城市集装箱生成量预测  

Forecasting the Urban Container Productive Quantity in Three Steps

作　　者：何雪君[1] 郑平[1] 王冬良[1] 郭洪伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学珠海分校物流学院,广东珠海519085

出　　处：《物流技术》2012年第1期89-91,共3页Logistics Technology

基　　金：中国物流学会与中国物流与采购联合会2010年课题"腹地重叠下港口城市集装箱量统计方法与对策研究"(2010CSLKT188)

摘　　要：给出了集装箱生成量的定义与影响因素,并将城市集装箱生成量预测分为三步:一是用移动平均法修匀历史数据、用Brown非线性指数平滑法预测外贸总额;二是根据适箱货金额、集装箱货重等数据,计算生成集装箱各相关系数;三是用多因素动态生成系数法预测集装箱生成量,从而为城市集装箱生成量预测提供一种可供借鉴的方法,为政府决策提供依据。The paper gives the definition of container productive quantity and its influencing factors and outlines the three-step procedure for its forecasting： first, using the moving average method to trim the historical data and Brown non-linear expotential smoothing method to foreeast the total volume of foreign trade; second, calculating the various coefficients of the quantity of containers generated according to data such as value and weight of containerized goods, etc; third, using the multi-factor dynamic coefficient generating method to forecasting the productive quantity of the containers generated.

关 键 词：集装箱 生成量预测 三步骤 

分 类 号：F252.21[经济管理—国民经济] U169.1[交通运输工程]