中国特色的人口转变  

Demographic Transition with Chinese Characteristics

作　　者：马力[1] 桂江丰[2] 

机构地区：[1]国务院 [2]中国人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2012年第1期45-51,共7页Population Research

摘　　要：从人口均衡发展的角度对人口转变理论进行了研究,认为人口转变是由低级人口均衡转变为高级人口均衡的跃迁过程,人口"总量相对静止、结构高位稳定"是最理想的人口发展状态。中国人口转变经历了超前经济发展的"人口转变"和与经济互动发展的"后人口转变"两个阶段,人口转变过程中需跨越"高少儿抚养"和"高老年赡养"的两次陷阱。稳定适度低生育水平和提升人口素质是未来根本任务,从较短期看总和生育率保持在1.8左右,从中长期看总和生育率回归更替水平,是"后人口转变"时期的战略目标,也是促进人口长期均衡发展的必由之路。This article develops a balanced- population development approach to the demographic transition theory, arguing that demographic transition is a process in which societies move from a lowlevel population balance to a highlevel population balance. China has experienced two phases of demographic transition： a stage in which the demographic transition occurred ahead of economic development and a stage in which it interacts with economic development; and China needs to stride across two traps in the demographic transition process： a ＂high - child - dependency＂ tarp and a ＂high old - dependency＂ trap. Stabilizing moderately low fertilily levels and enhancing qualily of the population are among the fundamental tasks for the future.

关 键 词：人口转变 后人口转变 人口均衡发展 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]