分工演进、金融发展与经济增长实证研究—基于浙湘1992-2006年数据和PLSR静动态通径模型  

An Empirical Analysis on Evolution of Division of Labor and Financial Development and Economy Growth:Based on Province Zhe and Xiang 1992-2006 Data of China and Static and Dynamic Partial Least Squares Path Model

作　　者：吴拥政[1] 颜日初[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学数计学院电子商务系,湖南长沙410081 [2]中南财经政法大学统数学院统计学系,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2012年第1期112-121,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(10C0966);教育部人文社科基金项目(09YJA790068)

摘　　要：根据浙湘1992-2006年的数据,反复设定静态与动态偏最小二乘通径分析模型进行实证估计和检验。分析结果表明多潜变量静态通径模型通径系数估计值绝大多数是统计显著的;双潜变量动态通径模型的即期通径系数估计值和滞后通径系数估计值是统计显著的,显示了潜变量之间的静态与动态作用定量关系。这些分析结果为深入探索中国省区分工演进、金融发展与经济增长的机制提供了经验证据,也为深入探索中国多区域尺度金融发展与经济增长的关系提供了新的方法。Based on the province Zhe and Xiang 1992-2006 data of China, by repeatedly set the static and dynamic partial least-squares path model, the estimation and testing results show that in static multi-latent-variable path model the vast majority of path coefficients estimated value are statistical significant; and show that in dynamic pair-latent-variable path model the estimated value of non-lagged path coemcients and lagged path coefficient are statistically significant, and thus show how the latent variables have the static and dynamic effect in the quantitative relationship. These results provided empirical evidences for thorough research on mechanisms in provincial regional evolution of division of labor and financial development and economy growth, and provided a new method for more in-depth exploration on multi-regional-scale relationship of financial development and economic growth in China.

关 键 词：分工演进 金融发展 经济增长 PLSR静动态通径模型 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]