内蒙古镶黄旗草地蝗虫潜在发生可能性评价  

An evaluation of potential occurrence of grasshopper plague in Xianghuangqi grasslands of Inner Mongolia, North China

作　　者：张红艳[1] 张娜[1] 陈晓燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2012年第1期222-234,共13页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30870430)和国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作交流项目(31061140359)资助

摘　　要：以内蒙古草地蝗虫产卵期、越冬期和孵化期的关键气象影响因子作为草地蝗虫气象适宜度指数构建的主要因子,对内蒙古镶黄旗2010年草地蝗虫潜在发生的气象适宜性进行评价;根据当年7月上中旬在镶黄旗的实地调查资料,选取海拔、坡向、土壤类型、土壤含砂量、植被类型、植被盖度、土地覆被类型7个相对稳定的生境因子,用模糊评判方法和3S(GIS、RS、GPS)技术对该旗草地蝗虫潜在发生的生境适宜性进行评价;最后通过构建气象-生境适宜性综合评价模型,得到该旗2010年草地蝗虫潜在发生可能性(POG)等级,并用2010年实测数据和2001—2010年历史数据对模型模拟的蝗虫发生位置和蝗灾发生面积进行验证.结果表明:用本文所建气象-生境适宜性综合评价模型对镶黄旗POG等级的评价结果是可靠的.该旗草地蝗虫潜在发生的气象适宜性等级非常一致,绝大多数为适宜等级;蝗虫潜在发生源地的空间异质性主要与生境因子有关,在海拔1300～1400m的平地/东坡/南坡、植被盖度30%～50%的温带丛生禾草草原、土壤含砂量60%～80%的典型栗钙土的生境条件下,草地蝗虫潜在发生的可能性最高.In this study, the key climatic factors in spawning, overwintering, and hatching periods of grasshopper were taken as the main factors to establish the climatic suitability index of potential occurrence of grasshopper （POG） in Inner Mongolia, and an evaluation was conducted on the climatic suitability of POG in Xianghuangqi County of Inner Mongolia in 2010. Based on the field investigation data collected in early and mid July 2010, seven relatively stable habitat factors including elevation, aspect, soil type, soil sand content, vegetation type, vegetation coverage, and land cover type were selected, and the habitat suitability for POG throughout the County was estimated by using fuzzy evaluation combining with 3S （GIS, RS, and GPS） technology. The POG ranks in 2010 were estimated by integrating the climatic and habitat suitability for POG. The simulated locations where grasshopper occurred were verified by the field investigation data in 2010, and the simulated areas infected by grasshopper were verified by historical data from 2001 to 2010. The results confirmed that the estimated POG ranks were reliable. The climatic suitability for POG was very homogeneous over the study area, and the vast majority of the study area was in the rank of ＂suitable＂. The spatial heterogeneity of the potential locations where the grasshopper might occur was mainly related to habitat factors. The highest POG rank was found at the locations with elevation 1300-1400 m, flat or aspect of east or south, typical chestnut soil, soil sand content 60%-80%, and vegetation coverage 30%-50% in temperate bunchgrass steppe.

关 键 词：草地蝗灾 气象适宜性 生境适宜性 模糊评判 3S技术 综合评价模型 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]