产业结构影响中国贸易收支失衡的理论分析与实证检验  

A Theoretical Analysis and an Empirical Study on Impact of Industrial Structure on China’s Trade Imbalance

作　　者：张明志[1] 马静[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系,361005

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第1期50-61,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目(项目批准号:06JJD790030);福建省社会科学规划一般项目(项目批准号:2010B169)的资助

摘　　要：分析和解决中国当前的贸易收支失衡即巨额的贸易顺差问题是解决中国经济外部失衡的关键所在。从贸易方式看,加工贸易逐渐成为中国贸易收支失衡的决定性因素;从商品结构看,机械及运输设备类产品已成为工业制成品贸易顺差的重要来源。理论分析表明,中国巨额的贸易顺差是在特定的历史背景下形成的,具有一定的脆弱性。实证研究发现,产业结构和贸易结构及二者的相互影响对中国贸易收支失衡具有重要的影响作用;人民币升值虽然有利于改善中国的贸易收支失衡状况,但与结构变量相比,其改善的程度较弱。要从根本上解决中国经济的外部失衡,政策的着力点应更多地放在以产业结构调整为核心的结构性问题方面。Analyzing and solving China＇ s current trade imbalance is the key to solve the external economic imbalance. From the trade mode, processing trade has become a decisive factor of China＇ s trade imbalance; from the commodity structure, machinery and transport equipment products have become an important contribution to the trade surplus. The theoretical analysis shows that China＇ s huge trade surplus was formed in a specific historical context, and has certain vulnerability. The empirical study finds that industrial structure, trade structure and the interaction between them had an important effect on China＇ s trade im balance. RMB appreciation can help to improve China＇ s trade imbalance, but compared with the structure variable, the degree of its improvement is less. Based on the above study, the paper finds that in order to adjust the external imbalance of China＇ s economy, the government should focus more on the adjustment of industrial structure as one of the core structural issues.

关 键 词：贸易收支失衡 产业结构 贸易结构 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]