奇异谱分析-最大熵结合最优子集回归方法在中国夏季降水预测中的应用  

Researching and Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Combined with Multi-Regression in Prediction of Summer Precipitation over China

作　　者：王澄海[1] 耿立成[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《气象》2012年第1期41-46,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006023);国家自然基金项目(41071028)共同资助

摘　　要：基于奇异谱分析-最大熵预报方法(SSA-MEM)和最优子集回归方法(OSR),综合考虑降水量序列自身的变化特征和外强迫因子对降水的贡献,把奇异谱分析-最大熵预报方法和最优子集回归方法结合起来,提出了SSA-MEM和OSR集成的新方法。对1961—2000年的夏季降水量进行拟合并试做2001—2004年的夏季降水预测。结果表明,回报拟合值与实况值距平相关系数达到0.85,通过了0.01的显著性水平检验。预报的平均技巧得分较高,试报准确率达到69%,略高于目前国内对汛期降雨预测的平均准确率。初步的试验表明,本方法对全国范围夏季降水有较好的预测能力,在东北及西南地区预测结果尤为显著。In this work,a new method of prediction of China summer precipitation was suggested.The new ensemble method is a combination of singular spectrum analysis-maximum entropy method（SSA-MEM） and optimal subset regression（OSR）,in which the inner characteristics of the series and influence of outer forcing factors are both calculated.The hindcast of the summer precipitation during period of 1961—2000, and the prediction of 2001—2004 are made separately.Results show that the anomaly correlation between the hindcast and the observed of precipitation for 160 stations reaches 0.85,passing through significance level of 0.01.The accuracy of summer prediction is obviously over 69%,which is slightly better than climate prediction on average.It indicates that the performance of the method suggested in this paper is well on the prediction of summer precipitation and is especially well over Northeast and Southwest China, which stands for its application into prediction practice.

关 键 词：奇异谱分析-最大熵预报方法 最优子集回归 夏季降水量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]