中国东部地区冬季降水相态的识别判据研究  

Research on Winter Precipitation Types' Discrimination Criterion in Eastern China

作　　者：漆梁波[1] 张瑛[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030 [2]江西省气象台,南昌330046

出　　处：《气象》2012年第1期96-102,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：重庆大学开放研究基金(2007DA10512709401);中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2011M29)共同资助

摘　　要：基于中国东部5个冬季的地面降水观测和高空探测资料,针对不同的降水相态,对它们对应的不同温度及不同厚度进行统计分析,最终得到一组中国东部地区冬季降水相态的推荐识别判据。分析发现:由于气候背景不同,我国东部的识别判据阈值和西欧的略有差别,而北美洲识别判据在我国东部的适用性也不好;综合考虑温度因子和厚度因子的识别判据表现则更好一些。该组判据对雨和雪的判别性能较好,TS评分分别达到0.91和0.73;对雨夹雪的容忍性判别TS评分也能达到0.57;但对冻雨(冰粒)的判别效果不好,TS评分仅为0.25左右,空报率达0.70～0.80,主要原因还是识别判据的针对性不足。鉴于该类天气的复杂成因,开发该类天气的客观识别判据需要考虑更细致的大气层结状况和局地气候条件,而当地预报员的预报经验仍将发挥重要的作用。本工作的结果能为我国东部地区的相关业务预报和数值模式产品后处理提供较好的参考。Based on 5 years＇ surface observation and sounding data in eastern China Region,a set of discrimination criterion is suggested after statistically analyzing temperature and thickness for different precipitation types.It is found that：Discrimination criterion in eastern China is different from that of western Europe because of climate factors;Applicability of North America＇s criterion is not good to eastern China; Criterion combining temperature with thickness has a better behavior.The suggested criterion has a fairly good performance to rain and snow,with TS scores of 0.91 and 0.73 respectively.A compatible TS score of sleet can reach 0.57 too.With a FAR（false alarm ratio） of 0.70—0.80,the criterion for freezing rain （ice pellet） is not satisfying,only turns out a TS score of 0.25.This poor behavior is attributable to insufficiency of discrimination factors.Due to complex mechanism of freezing rain（ice pellet）,more detailed vertical profile information and local climate factors must be taken into account when developing its discrimination criterion.And local forecasters＇ experience can still play an important role in forecasting this precipitation type.Results from this paper can be a good reference for operational work and numerical model post-process in eastern China.

关 键 词：冬季降水 识别判据 冻雨 冰粒 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]