公路货物运输系统动力学模型及其应用  

System Dynamics Model of Road Freight Transport System and Its Application

作　　者：武慧荣[1,2] 崔淑华[1] 张文会[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2012年第2期149-153,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DL11BB27);黑龙江省交通运输厅重点科技项目

摘　　要：公路货物运输系统不仅是一个动态的、非线性的复杂系统,而且受众多因素影响。为了提高公路货物运输系统预测的精度,采用系统动力学方法,考虑系统中经济、人口、运输需求、运输供给、运输价格、其他运输方式等多个相关因素,分析因素间的因果关系。在构建因果关系图和分析因果反馈环的基础上建立了公路货物运输系统的SD(System Dynamics)模型,并应用黑龙江省公路货物运输相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明应用该模型进行公路货物运输系统预测是有效可行的,且预测精度比传统预测方法高。Road freight transport system is not only a dynamic, nonlinear and complex system, but also a system influenced by many factors. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of road freight transport system, several relevant factors such as economy, population, transportation supplies and demands, transportation price and other transportation modes were considered, and their causes and effects were analyzed. Based on the establishment of causality diagram and analysis of causality feedback loop, the SD model of road freight transport system was established. The proposed model was verified by simulation using the relevant statistical data of Heilongjiang Provincial road freight transport. The results show that the SD model is effective and can obtain higher accuracy than traditional methods in road freight volume forecasting.

关 键 词：运输经济 预测 系统动力学 公路货物运输 

分 类 号：F540.5[经济管理—产业经济]