2012年中国经济形势展望及预测  

China's Economic Outlook and Prediction in 2012

作　　者：杨晓光[1,2] 杨翠红[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院预测科学研究中心 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2012年第1期37-43,共7页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中科院“全球经济监测与政策模拟仿真平台建设预研项目”;国家自然科学基金面上项目“宏观决策支持系统的要素分析”(No.70871109);专项基金项目“‘十二五’时期物价走势预测及分析”(No.71141002)的资助

摘　　要：2011年,我国经济总体上保持了平稳较快增长的良好局面,预计全年GDP增速约为9.2%。相比2011年,2012年中国经济内外形势都相当严峻:国际方面,金融危机余波未了,欧债危机可能进一步蔓延,中东局势很不稳定,世界经济增速放缓;国内方面,经济结构调整任务艰巨,节能减排压力不减,房地产调控不能放松。预计2012年上半年我国经济增速呈回落趋势,下半年将有所好转,全年GDP增速约为8.5%;通货膨胀压力降低,CPI逐渐走低,全年CPI涨幅在3.8%左右。从三大需求看,2012年进出口增速进一步回落,同比增长约14.8%,贸易顺差继续下降;消费将保持较快增长,2012年实际增速与2011年基本持平;投资增速趋稳,较2011年略有下降;三大需求之中,消费对我国经济增长的贡献将有所扩大。In a general sense, China＇ s economy has been in a stable and good situation in 2011. We predict the yearly GDP growth rate of 2011 is about9.2%. Compared with 2011, China＇ s economy will confront challeng- ing international and domestic conditions in 2012. For the international aspect, the aflershock of international fi- nancial crisis is not over, European debt crisis might go deeper, the Middle East is quite unstable, and the glob- al economic growth rate will go down. For domestic aspect, re-structuring economy remains a heavy task, sav- ing-energy and reducing warm gas emission remain a big pressure, and the tight control on real assets market can not be lessened. We predict that： the GDP growth rates will go down in the first half of 2012, but turn better in the second half of the year, the yearly GDP growth might reach around 8.5%; the inflationary pressure will alleviate obviously, CPI will go down gradually, and the yearly CPI might be about 3.8%. For the ＂three big de- mands＂, the growth rate of foreign trade will keep on going down to a level at about 14.8%, and the surplus of foreign trade will further decrease; the consumption will have a relatively stable and fast growth rate, the real growth of the consumption is at the similar level of 2011; the investment will keep a stable pace, just a bit lower than that of 2011. The contribution of consumption to the economic growth will go higher among the ＂three big demands＂.

关 键 词：GDP增速 通货膨胀 投资 消费 进出口 预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]