Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate  

作　　者：DU ZhanLe WANG HuaNing 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Solar Activity,National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China

出　　处：《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》2012年第2期365-370,共6页中国科学：物理学、力学、天文学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020,40890161 and 10921303);the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2011CB811406);the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No.GYHY201106011)

摘　　要：The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude （solar maximum）. It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum （Rmax） and the rising rate （βa） at Am months after the solar minimum （Rmin） is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point （r = 0.83） at about Am = 20 months. The prediction error of Rmax based on βa is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when Am ≥ 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle （24） is preliminarily predicted to peak around October, 2013 with a size of Rmax = 84 ＋ 33 at the 90% level of confidence.The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum).It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle.The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (R max) and the rising rate (β a) at Δm months after the solarminimum (Rmin) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r=0.83) at about Δm=20 months.The prediction error of R max based on β a is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when Δm 20.From the above relationship,the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October,2013 with a size of R max=84±33 at the 90% level of confidence.

关 键 词：solar physics solar activity sun spots solar cycles 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]