我国出口国(区)别分布及出口增长的影响因素  

Influence Factors on China’s Export Country Distribution and Export Growth: An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model of Panel Data During 1997-2008

作　　者：徐春祥[1] 吴志力[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学经济管理学院国际贸易系

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第2期43-55,共13页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目:垂直专业化;贸易转向与东亚贸易一体化(项目编号:W2010361)

摘　　要：本文基于1997-2008年我国对25个主要贸易伙伴出口额等面板数据建立了6个贸易引力模型,筛选出了两国首都(城市)之间贸易平均里程等10个影响贸易流量及出口增长的因素,通过对比研究,发现不同因素对我国出口流量的国别分布以及出口增长有着不同程度的影响。同时,本文给出了某一年份我国对不同贸易伙伴的名义和实际出口增长潜力的测算方法。Based on the panel data during 1997 to 2008 of China’s export value to its 25 primary trade partners,this paper establishes 6 gravity models and chooses 10 factors such as average trade mileage between two partners’ capitals,which may affect trade flow and export growth,and comparison shows that different factors have different influences on China’s export country distribu-tion and export growth.Meanwhile,some measurements are given to calculate China’s nominal and actual growth potential to its different trade partners on a given year.

关 键 词：出口国别分布 出口增长 贸易平均里程 引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]