中国装备制造业的出口依存度及对外市场的需求弹性研究——基于行业面板数据的分析  

On Export Dependence and Foreign Market Demand Elasticity of Equipment Manufacturing in China: Based on the Panel Data Analysis of Sub-sectors

作　　者：向一波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《财经研究》2012年第2期102-111,共10页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章利用装备制造业7个子行业2001-2009年出口交货值和产业销售值数据,对产业的对外市场需求弹性进行了动态实证研究,并在此基础上利用7个子行业的对外市场需求弹性系数作为权重,对装备制造业的对外依存度进行了新的计算。研究结果表明,装备制造业7个子行业在短期内对外市场需求缺乏弹性,而部分行业在长期内对外市场需求富有弹性;根据对外依存度的传统定义,在产业迅速发展时期,由于没有考虑到市场需求弹性因素,对产业的对外依存度存在高估。This paper makes a dynamic empirical study of industrial foreign market demand elasticity by using the data of 7 sub-sectors of equipment manufacturing concerning export delivery value and industrial sales from 2001 to 2009, and calculates the foreign dependence of equipment manufacturing by using the foreign market demand elasticity coefficients of 7 sub -sectors. The results show that the foreign market demand of equipment manufacturing＇s seven sub-sectors lacks flexibility in the short term, but the foreign market demand of partial sub-sectors is elastic in the long term; according to the traditional definition of foreign dependence, industrial foreign dependence is overestimated during the period of rapid industrial development because of lack of the consideration of market demand elasticity.

关 键 词：装备制造业 出口依存度 对外市场需求弹性 面板数据 

分 类 号：F416.4[经济管理—产业经济]