价格粘性下人民币不同升值模式对中国经济的影响研究  

On the Impacts of RMB Appreciation on China's Economy under Price Stickiness

作　　者：肖明智[1,2] 谢锐[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]湖南大学两型社会创新基地,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经研究》2012年第2期112-122,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：湖南大学985工程"两型社会创新基地";国家自然科学基金资助项目(70879039)

摘　　要：文章以衰减函数的方式将新凯恩斯学派提出的价格粘性理论引入中国动态可计算一般均衡模型中,使模型更符合经济系统中价格调整规律,并利用模型模拟渐进式升值和快速升值两种不同的人民币升值模式对我国经济的影响。模拟结果表明,在价格粘性的作用下,人民币快速升值将在短期内对我国实体经济产生较大的负面冲击,GDP增速下降最高达1.6个百分点,失业率明显上升,而渐进式升值最高只有0.67个百分点;快速升值能有效抑制我国的通货膨胀和促使我国贸易再平衡,最多使我国CPI增速下降3.6个百分点和贸易顺差占GDP比重下降1.06个百分点,并且在长期内对实体经济的负面效应略小于渐进式升值。因此,在不同的经济形势下应采取不同的人民币升值模式。This paper employs the attenuation function to introduce the theory of price stickiness raised by new Keynesians into the China＇s dynamic computable general equilibrium model, and makes the model more adaptable to price adjustment rules in economic system. Then it simulates the impacts of gradual and rapid RMB appreciation modes on China＇s economy. The results indicate that, owing to price stickiness, rapid RMB appreciation has significantly negative shocks on the real economy in China in the short run, leading to a 1.6 percent reduction in GDP growth rate and an obvious rise in unemployment while gradual RMB appreciation only gives rise to a 0. 67 percent reduction in GDP growth rate; rapid RMB appreciation, which can ef- fectively curb the inflation and promote trade rebalance in China, results in a 3.6 and 1.06 percent reduction in CPI growth rate and the percentage of trade surplus in GDP respectively and has a weaker negative impact on the real economy than gradual RMB appreciation in the long run. Therefore, it suggests that RMB appreciation modes should be adopted according to different economic circumstances.

关 键 词：人民币升值 动态CGE模型 价格粘性 经济影响 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]