地震作用下堤防风险分析研究  

Study on risk analysis of embankment under earthquake

作　　者：蔡新[1,2,3] 李益[1,2] 吴威 叶松 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学力学与材料学院,南京210098 [3]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [4]南京市水利局,南京210008

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2011年第6期75-79,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：江苏省水利科技重点项目(2009054);水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心开放基金(201104);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项基金(2009586012)

摘　　要：基于地震作用对堤防风险因子不确定性的影响,将地震作用简化为对风险因子的不利扰动并用衰减函数来反映扰动的影响,以堤防安全的综合失效率和失事溃决洪水淹没范围来反映堤防整体风险,构建地震作用下堤防风险分析模型。以荆江大堤某典型断面在7度地震作用下为例,从风险角度对该断面漫顶溃堤风险、滑坡失稳风险、渗透破坏风险和土体液化风险进行了分析研究,并模拟了溃决洪水的淹没范围,所得结论可为堤防防洪减灾预警和决策提供参考。To consider the uncertainty of seismic effects on embankment risk factors,we simplified earthquake action into a risk factor of adverse disturbance and represented the disturbance by an attenuation function.Then we developed an analysis model of comprehensive risk under earthquake to include embankment failure risk,flooding risk and flooding area.Using this model,we analyzed the risks of flood overtopping,slope stability,seepage and soil liquefaction,and simulated the area submerged by embankment-breach flow,through a case study of Jingjiang dike＇s typical section under earthquakes of seven degrees.This work is useful for design of flood warning system and emergency plans.

关 键 词：防洪 风险分析 数值模拟 堤防工程 地震 洪水演进 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]