基于BN-CPM的工程进度风险因素相关性分析  

Correlation analysis of scheduling risks based on BN-CPM

作　　者：刘俊艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学工程管理研究所,南京210097

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2011年第6期199-203,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：江苏省研究生创新计划(CX09B_058R);河海大学优秀博士论文培养计划(2010B19014)

摘　　要：影响工程进度的某些风险因素之间存在一定的相关性,现有风险分析方法在处理相关系时多假设因素之间相互独立或采用相关系数矩阵;变量相互独立的假设与实际情况不相符,而相关系数矩阵赋值困难在一定程度上影响了工程进度风险分析的准确性。文章将贝叶斯网络引入工程进度风险分析中,建立BN-CPM模型,该模型将工程进度网络图及影响工程进度的风险因素以贝叶斯网络的形式描述,并利用贝叶斯网络推理功能推算工程活动风险因素之间的相关性,同时分析工程进度风险。BN-CPM模型为管理者提供了一个较好的计算风险因素相关性、分析工程进度风险的方法。Project scheduling depends on various risk factors,and they should be related by certain relationships that are usually represented by a correlation matrix in the existing methods.The practical difficulty is that,however,in some cases this matrix is too complicated to evaluate.This paper introduces a new approach and develops a BN-CPM model that incorporates the project network and risk factors into a Bayesain network for modeling uncertainty and relationship in project scheduling.Hence the new model can be used for calculation of the correlation between risk factors and also for analysis of schedule risks.It is a useful tool for managers to understand project risk factors and to improve their decision making.

关 键 词：工程进度 风险分析 贝叶斯网络 相关性 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]