2011年云南盈江5.8级地震及震前短临跟踪预测  

Short-term and Impending Prediction of the Mar.10,2011,M_S5.8,Yingjiang,Yunnan Earthquake

作　　者：钱晓东[1] 苏有锦[1] 付虹[1] 李琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224

出　　处：《地震研究》2011年第4期403-413,共11页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：中国地震局2011年度震情跟踪合同制工作项目"全国地震重点危险区强震趋势与短临危险强化跟踪研究"资助

摘　　要：系统收集了2011年云南盈江5.8级地震前后的地震学基础资料,对盈江地震的地震地质背景、地震序列基本特征、地震烈度、发震断裂和区域应力场进行了详细分析。在此次盈江地震发生前,运用地震力标度、环境剪应力、地震序列h值、破裂时间法、能量释放方法,对该地震做了短临跟踪和预测。结果显示,盈江5.8级地震的发震断裂很可能是NE向的大盈江左旋走滑断裂,盈江地震前出现了诸多地学参数异常,这些异常对未来强震发生的时间和地点均有短临指示意义。Collecting the firsthand seismic data before and after the Ms5.8 Yingjiang earthquake in Yunnan Province in 2010, we systematically analyze the seismo-geological background, the main characteristics of the sequence, the seismic intensity, the seismogenic fault of the Yingjiang earthquake as well as the regional stress field in the earthquake-stricken area. Particularly, by tracking the earthquake force scale, shear stress, h-value of earth- quake sequence, time -to -failure and seismic energy, we conduct a short-term and impending earthquake and prediction 3 months before Yingjiang earthquake. The Dayingjiang fault, which is NE-trending, left-lateral and strike-slip, is most likely the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. There appeared a lot of anomalous seismic pa- rameters before the earthquake, which significant to the short-term and impending prediction for the time and lo- cation of the future earthquakes in this area.

关 键 词：盈江地震 震源机制 地震学参数 短临预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]