统计降尺度法在我国流域气候的应用进展  

Review on Application of Statistical Downscaling Techniques in China

作　　者：侯保俭[1] 王渺林[1,2] 傅华[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学河海学院,重庆400074 [2]长江水利委员会长江上游水文水资源勘测局,重庆400014

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期1408-1411,共4页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAB21B01-01)

摘　　要：降尺度方法能够很好的解决模型GCMs与水文模型相结合的问题。分析了降尺度方法的主要特点及产生背景;介绍了降尺度方法的分类及其优缺点;归纳了近年来统计降尺度理论方法在我国不同尺度流域的研究应用;系统论述了统计降尺度的理论方法、应用步骤和研究进展。通过比较分析得出统计降尺度要优于动力降尺度方法的结论;指出了统计降尺度在今后应用中需要改进和完善的地方,尤其是其在降水预测中的不足;最后指出未来统计降尺度技术发展的主流方向。The downscaling technique is useful for solving the problem of combining the atmospheric circulation model scenarios（GCMs） and hydrological models.The main characteristics and background of downscaling method are analyzed.The classification of the advantages and disadvantages of each downscaling method are introduced.According to the application the statistical downscaling methods in different areas in recent years,the theory of statistical downscaling methods,application procedures and research progress are systematically discussed.Through comparative analysis,statistical downscaling method is superior to dynamical downscaling.And the shortages of the application of statistical downscaling need to be improved in the future,especially the shortages in the precipitation forecast.Finally,prospects of developing new downscaling techniques by combining statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques are pointed out.

关 键 词：统计降尺度 动力降尺度 模型GCMs 统计与动力相结合的降尺度 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]