基于RS和GIS的南岸区土地利用现状及预测  

Research on the Status Quo of Land Utilization in Nanan District and Its Predication Based on RS and GIS

作　　者：毛海[1] 张晓媛[1,2] 杨沁汶[1,2] 安祺[1,2] 彭丽[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学旅游与国土资源学院,重庆400067 [2]重庆市发展信息管理工程技术研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期82-86,共5页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07104-003);重庆市教委项目(KJ100703);重庆工商大学科技创新基金项目(31994631;102078)共同资助

摘　　要：以南岸区1978、1985、1988、1993、1996、2000、2003、2009年共8期遥感数据作为数据源,在RS和GIS技术支持下对重庆市南岸区1978-2009年土地利用类型的动态度变化进行分析,并用马尔科夫过程模型预测了南岸区2012-2032年土地利用的演变趋势;结果表明:从1978-2009年,林地、耕地面积迅速减少,城市建设用地面积增加;在未来的20年,南岸区的耕地和林地逐年减少,林地增加,水域面积呈增加趋势;到2032年各种地类占南岸区总面积的百分比分别为:耕地47.16%,建设用地31.08%,林地16.11%,水域5.57%。Taking Landsat image data as data sources from 1978, 1985, 1988, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003 and 2009 in Nanan District, under the support by RS and GIS technology, this paper analyzes dynamic degree change of land utilization types from 1978 to 2009 in Nanan District and uses Markov Process Model to predicate evolution trend of land utilization during 2012-2032 in this region. The results show that forestland and cultivated land decreased rapidly during 1978-2009 and urban construction land increased, that in coming 20 years, cultivated land gradually decreases but forestland increases and waters area demonstrates increasing trend in Nanan District, that till 2032, the proportion of all kinds of land in Nanan District is 47.16 percent cultivated land, 31.08 percent construction land, 16.11 percent forestland and 5.57 percent waters area respectively. The research results provide scientific reference for sustainable development of land resources.

关 键 词：土地利用 预测 马尔科夫模型 RS和GIS 南岸区 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]